An average 15-pound turkey could cost around $30 this Thanksgiving, according to an analysis from Purdue University.
That’s a 75% price increase since October 2024 — a reversal from the relatively low prices of previous years. But why?
“Around this time of year, we typically see some price change,” said Caitlinn Hubbell, a researcher at Purdue who co-authored the analysis. “But right now, we’re seeing higher feed costs.”
Hubbell said animal feed often makes up 60-70% of a producer’s operating costs. While each farmer has their own special feed mixture, usually prepared by a nutritionist, most include minerals, vitamins and other ingredients imported from abroad. Those ingredients have recently been hit by tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration.
Higher bird populations could help rein in higher poultry costs, but with bird flu having already killed over 7 million commercial fowl this year, that’s unlikely to happen.
How to prepare for higher prices
“Just because wholesale prices are high doesn’t mean that the retailer is going to pass that all the way on to the consumer,” Hubbell from Purdue University said.
In a world where sticker shock is commonplace, retailers are trying to offer deals to retain customers, she said. Walmart, for example, is offering its wholesale turkeys at just below a dollar a pound in its annual meal deal.
President Donald Trump recently quoted that Walmart deal as a sign of affordability in the economy. However, Walmart president and CEO John Furner said the price reduction was intended to add “value” for customers seeking a cheaper option.
While high turkey prices may be a concern, other complementary goods have actually become more affordable.
“Foods like fruits and vegetables, potatoes, especially bread … we haven’t seen large increases in price there,” Hubbell said. “So if consumers were looking to save money, I think those would be foods that you could add to complement your meal.”
If customers are worried about a more expensive family Thanksgiving dinner, Hubbell said it’s a good idea to shop early, scout for deals and make a comprehensive budget.
