Governor-elect Sam Brownback named several members of his cabinet who will take over in January. His decision to keep Deb Miller as secretary of transportation stood out. Miller has led KDOT with distinction under governors of both parties. Prior to that, she worked as a planner in the department. Gov. Brownback showed good judgment in asking her to continue to serve.
Sec. Miller, on the other hand, may have thought a bit before saying yes. KDOT’s budget has been used as a piggy bank to rob by Legislatures past. This year KDOT will be getting money from the 1-cent sales tax increase to start a new 10-year transportation program. Tax- averse lawmakers will be sorely tempted to divert some of that to other parts of the budget rather than raise the money needed to cover part of the $500 million deficit now predicted.
Miller will be forced to spend time and energy protecting her department’s budget that otherwise would be spent keeping Kansas highways at the top of the nation’s highway roster.
She did agree to serve, those who know her will understand, because she is genuinely committed to the job. She will continue to do it very well.
AS EXPECTED, conservative Republicans tightened their hold on the House by retaining Rep. Mike O’Neil as speaker, electing Arlen Siegfreid of Olathe majority leader and Jene Vickrey of Louisburg speaker pro tem.
Moderates who ran for party posts were defeated.
The election gave the Republicans 92 members in the 125-member body. The coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats which passed the 1-cent sales tax increase this year and followed by adopting a budget that funded a new transportation program and kept public education funding level no longer exists.
Since some of the most conservative Republicans campaigned on a promise to repeal the sales tax increase, an effort to do so can be expected. But the new governor opposes repeal. Doing so would raise the budget deficit from $500 million to $850 million, or from 8.6 percent of the $5.8 billion budget to 14.6 percent.
Gov.-elect Brownback looked at those numbers and told an Associated Press reporter last month that he opposes repeal because, “We’re short of re-sources for the state and I don’t think that is something we should be doing at this time. Our fiscal situation is not stable.”
Those who can do arithmetic will agree wholeheartedly. But deciding to keep that added sales tax revenue won’t produce the additional $500 million the state will need to replace the federal stimulus money that propped up the budget for the last two years.
It is possible that the shortfall won’t be quite that great. The Kansas farm economy has done very well this year. Tax revenues from that segment of the economy — which includes revenue from ag spending in rural econ-omies as well as revenue from the producers themselves — will rise. And, despite the rote predictions from the anti-tax cult, the state’s economy grew rather than declined after the tax increase went into effect in July.
Not even the most optimistic believe, however, that revenue will rise quickly enough to make up that 8.6 percent shortfall.
As a consequence, the governor and the Legislature will have to choose among three paths to follow: (1) budget cuts, such as turning prisoners loose to shave prison costs; (2) cost shifting by reducing state school aid and forcing school districts to raise local taxes to keep the school doors open; cutting aid to higher education and forcing tuition and fee increases to shift the burden to students and their families; (3) raising more revenue by eliminating exemptions to the sales tax and tax credits that go to businesses and various other groups. Since it must be assumed that no direct tax increase could pass the new Legislature, repealing exemptions and tax credits will be the only politically feasible way to in-crease state revenue.
The outlook is for a smaller state government. And because education and social services make up more than 80 percent of the state budget, Kansans can expect the public schools, the community colleges and state universities to become less able to prepare Kansas students to succeed in today’s knowledge-based society. Aid to the needy and the disabled will shrink.
Elections have consequences.
— Emerson Lynn, jr.
