South Carolina and Florida will do the winnowing for the Republicans. Six candidates for the nomination will contend in South Carolina on Jan. 21. Perhaps four still will be in the running at the end of the month when Florida votes. Come February, Mr. Romney and Mr. Paul may be alone.
New Hampshire’s voters not only gave Mitt Romney a comfortable win, they also kept Paul, Huntsman, Santorum and Gingrich believing they still have a chance. Rick Perry will join them in South Carolina. Thus the anti-Romney vote will be split and seem that much less significant.
Perry will do a bit better in the south than he did in Iowa, but probably will go back to Texas on Jan. 22.
Newt Gingrich was hit hardest in New Hampshire. He surely hoped to do better than 10 percent there. New Hampshire voters tend to be pragmatic, moderate and independent. Kinda like Newt was when elected speaker. As a state, it has the second lowest church attendance among the 50. The old Newt would have appealed to the folks in Manchester; the new holier-than-thou Gingrich fell flat.
(Since the political climate in New Hampshire is much nearer to that of the nation as a whole than that of Iowa or, for that matter, South Carolina, lessons were taught there Tuesday.)
If the various versions of Gingrich fail to score in South Carolina, he may not slog on past Florida.
Mr. Huntsman put all he had on the table in New Hampshire Tuesday and came in a distant third with 17 percent. While he says he is in the race to stay, he can’t answer the why question rationally. Maybe he’ll quietly withdraw before South Carolina votes, to save money and embarrassment.
Ron Paul’s performance defies understanding. And he may stay in the 20s in both South Carolina and Florida because he has a small but fervent following who stick with him. He refuses to dismiss running as an independent if he doesn’t win the GOP nomination. Which he won’t. But his supporters keep giving him money so look for him under one party label or another until November.
Paul is only a Republican because Texans don’t send fringe party candidates to Congress. He is an isolationist/libertarian who could never be nominated, let alone elected. His candidacy is affecting the nomination process, however. His fervent followers would have to vote for someone else if he were not on the ballot. Since his campaign and persona are very unRomney, those votes would otherwise be strengthening Romney opponents and making the race more competitive than it is shaping up to be.
Rick Santorum expects strong support from the 60 percent of the South Carolina population who declare themselves to be evangelicals or born-again Christians or both. But all of the folks on the Jan. 21 ballot have taken the social issues oath of allegiance, so he will have to share. When choices must be made, social conservatives will discover that all six oppose abortion and same-sex marriage and decide what else matters in governing the nation.
Santorum’s support will diminish at this point. His senate record was not outstanding. Since his overwhelming defeat for re-election, he has made a good living as a lobbyist/consultant, trading on his knowledge of government, but has done nothing to equip himself for the presidency. Expect him to fade from the scene before the month ends.
— Emerson Lynn, jr.
