ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — So baseball just had its version of a drunken frat party.
The season was over, the labor war was only days away and teams were in the mood to overindulge. And, as is usually the case with this much revelry, some folks are going to wake up with serious regret.
Staring at an economic showdown between players and owners that is expected to begin with a lockout Wednesday evening, teams went on a spending spree in recent days.
It was thrilling for fans, it was lucrative for players and it was Armageddon for accountants. General managers were spending money as if they were elected officials.
Max Scherzer is likely a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but the Mets just agreed to pay him $43 million a year until he turns 40. And that was one of the smarter deals.
The top six contracts on the free-agent market, as of Tuesday morning, had fetched just under $1 billion in guaranteed money. To put that into warped perspective:
One of those six players was Kevin Gausman.
He’s a fine pitcher, Gausman. Had his first All-Star appearance last season. But he’s soon to turn 31 and has a 64-71 record with a career ERA of 4.02. In other words, we ain’t talking Gerrit Cole here.
Even the normally reticent Rays got in the action with a contract that will guarantee 20-year-old shortstop Wander Franco at least $182 million over the next 11 years.
Final grades for most of these contracts will not be evident until years down the line. But that doesn’t mean we can’t speculate about winners and losers today.
Instead of predicting slugging percentages and pennants for the players and teams involved, we’ll take a broader look at 10 of the top deals. Call it the Regret Index.
Corey Seager, Texas,
10 years, $325 million
Seager looked like a potential superstar in 2016-17, but injuries slowed his ascent. Going into next year at age 28, there is still a window for MVP-caliber seasons but his durability is a little concerning. With the amount they are investing, the Rangers need Seager to be more than just a steady shortstop with a .295 batting average and a little pop. Regret Index: 60% chance.
Wander Franco,
Tampa Bay, 11 years, $182 million
